Does Forest's resurgence hint at a more open Premier League era?

Cast a fleeting eye over the summit of the current Premier League table and you'd be forgiven for momentarily believing you'd been transported back almost half a century. 1978 in particular strikes a familiar tone - Liverpool, Manchester City & Arsenal featured in the leading five of a top flight capped for the first (and so far, only) time by the proud yet provincial name of Nottingham Forest. 47 years on and the Tricky Trees are at it again, not quite leading the way (at the moment...) but certainly holding their own against teams with much greater resources than theirs.

Forest currently sit third, level on points with Arsenal and 6 behind league leaders Liverpool following their 1-1 draw with the Reds at the City Ground a week ago, albeit having played a game more. Their season so far has been a tale of usurping expectations at every opportunity. One of the favourites for the drop back in August, having only confirmed survival on the final day last season, Nuno Espirito Santo's side started slowly with a spell of just 2 wins in 7 games (although this did include a shock 1-0 victory at Anfield). 3 consecutive wins then launched them up to third, before 3 defeats in 4 to Newcastle, Arsenal and Manchester City briefly stalled their momentum. Forest's response to this blip has been emphatic, a further 7 wins from 8 catapulting them back towards the table's summit and seeing their draw with Liverpool 7 days ago branded as an unlikely title clash.

Such title-chasing form from pre-season relegation candidates has drawn understandable, if predictable, comparisons to Leicester City's famous title winners of 2015/16. Whilst this link to the extraordinary achievements of Forest's East Midlands rivals 9 years ago is valid (the Tricky Trees currently sit on the same number of points as the Foxes did at this stage of their glory campaign) perhaps a more realistic question to ask is this - is Forest's tremendous rise this campaign a sign of a more open, balanced Premier League landscape unfolding?

On the face of it, this may seem a ridiculous question to pose. Manchester City, wobbling as they are this season, are just coming off the back of a record fourth consecutive league triumph, their 6th in 7 years, with Liverpool and Arsenal the only other sides to threaten any sort of serious challenge in that time. As is often the case, however, look closer and a more interesting story soon begins to emerge...

For starters, the league's top 4 hasn't recently been quite the exclusive penthouse shared between an extended membership club of 6 that we've been used to for large swathes of the last decade or so. Two seasons ago, Newcastle, buoyed by new Saudi ownership (I didn't say this was all romantic...) and galvanised by Eddie Howe, morphed from perennial strugglers into a menacing outfit capable of gatecrashing the elite and finishing 4th. And last campaign, Unai Emery's rejuvenated Aston Villa stormed to the same position, marking their own return to Europe's top table after decades away and adding to the sense that money isn't (quite) everything in today's English top flight. This isn't to mention a plethora of so called 'smaller' clubs that have established themselves as Premier League forces to be reckoned with in recent years, such as Brighton, Fulham, Bournemouth & Brentford.

The flipside of these underdog achievements, of course, is that the traditional 'Big 6' have started to show some signs of longer term struggle. Manchester United and Tottenham currently sit in the bottom half of the division having endured wildly inconsistent campaigns, the former in a seemingly perpetual state of post-Fergie chaos and the latter willing to give up any genuine competitiveness in favour of becoming a travelling circus. The troubled pair are currently fighting for the mantle of the league's biggest basket case, handed over by Chelsea, who only now appear to be emerging from a bewildering era which saw a pitiful 12th placed finish in 2023 and Todd Boehly attempting to sign half of the adult population of West London. And even the previously imperious champions aren't immune, a stunning fall from grace this campaign seeing Manchester City plummet out of the title race and win only half of their opening 22 games.

The upper reaches of the Premier League landscape certainly appear to have entered a period of less stability, largely caused by the double effect of several ambitious, streetwise and upwardly mobile outfits emerging at the same time as a range of the established elite are suffering from a mixture of bad decisions, bad fortune and sheer complacency. How far this effect can continue to grow remains uncertain, especially with the vast reserves of wealth protecting the league's richest few clubs, but it's hard to argue that this increasingly unpredictable environment is fantastic for neutral fans and aspiring outsiders alike. A team such as Forest need only look at the recent achievements of the likes of Newcastle and Villa to receive all the encouragement they need that they can keep up their current high standards for the remainder of the campaign and reach Europe's premier competition for the first time in over 40 years.

It must be said, however, that a more cautionary tale is starting to evolve at the league's other extremity. Whilst there appears to be increasing scope for teams who manage to establish themselves in the Premier League to kick on and push towards the top end, the bottom of the league is threatening to become a stale sinkhole that simply regurgitates the same old clubs. Last season was the first since 1997-98 where all three promoted teams went straight down again, whilst 2 of the relegated 3 moved in the other direction. A similar situation could transpire this campaign, with all 3 new boys currently occupying the bottom 3 positions in the top flight and the Championship leading trio consisting of relegated Sheffield United & Burnley, plus Leeds United, who have only been away for a further season. If these 6 teams switch places again come May, next year's Premier League will feature no teams that haven't played at that level since 2022-23. That yo-yo's threatening to go into overdrive...

Of course, it's hardly any great mystery why we've reached this state of affairs. Such are the riches on offer to all of the Premier League's 20 member clubs, even a woefully managed bunch of mercenaries who crash out of the league in bottom place are relatively well insulated from the rigours of the second tier the year after (although some still do their best to get caught up in it...). Even clubs that have spent a few seasons out of the big time, such as Norwich City, Watford and West Brom, still boast a parachute payment laden financial buffer for smaller clubs to navigate past before they can begin to dream of the promised land. This isn't to say that it can't be done, Ipswich were a remarkable success story against the odds last term, but the overall balance of power is becoming ever more weighted towards the relegated clubs who aim to make an instant or relatively speedy return to the elite.

As refreshing as it is to see teams such as Brentford and Brighton make the top flight transition appear easy by outsmarting their more established peers, they remain the exception rather than the rule. Of all teams promoted to the Premier League since 2014, only 5 have so far gone on to post consecutive top half finishes - Leicester City, Wolves, Brighton, Newcastle & Aston Villa. Of this quintet, the last two have arguably reverted to their natural financial level, whilst Leicester and Wolves are hardly top-flight nomads in any era. Arguably only Brighton represent a true outsider breaking into elite territory. It all points to the following conclusion - the world's richest league is harder to establish yourself in than ever, but if you can make it, the possibilities are exciting.

So, overall, the Premier League has become a paradox of sorts. At one end (despite a certain club that has almost monopolised the very top position) a previously rigid hierarchy is starting to dissolve into a more open playing field where up and coming Davids can at least look to bloody the nose of the financial Goliaths. At the other, however, the barrier to entry is becoming so great that it's making it more difficult for those Davids to get there in the first place. Teams like Brighton and Bournemouth are making for great stories at the moment. But which other underdogs are coming to eventually replace them? Disrupting the 'Big 6' is all well and good until we find ourselves with a 'Big 17'...